Our future about El Niño and La Niña
Scientists are forecasting that there may be a severe El Niño weather event lasting through mid-2016.
For Indonesia, El Niño events are associated with prolonged drought, with adverse effects on food and cash crop production. Drought-affected declines in agricultural production can contribute to higher inflation, increases in poverty, weak exports, and unless El Niño risks are appropriately mitigated, can have adverse effects on political stability. Agriculture no longer plays a major role in the Indonesian economy. Nonetheless, a prolonged El Niño event could weaken growth, adversely affect external balance and trigger higher price inflation. The government could reduce the potential large impacts of the El Niño by developing timely and appropriate precautionary measures. In the short-term, the government should consider easing restrictions on foodstuff imports. Global commodity prices, including those for milled rice, are at cyclic lows. Easing restrictions on trade to allow both government and the private sector to build up precautionary stocks would help to assure consumers and the markets that El Niño will not trigger domestic food shortages. Second, consideration should be given to expanding social protection programs to assist those households whose livelihoods are adversely affected by El Niño. And third, in the medium-term, El Niño is a good reminder that more attention should be devoted to food security, by supporting measures that help boost opportunities and productivity of the poor and vulnerable to ensure that all people have sufficient food for a healthy life. |
(an image from http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/features/future-el-nino/)
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